Week Seven - Andy

Develop ideas of where you could incorporate the use of scenario planning in your organization.

First please look at the video about the different between strategic and scenario planning

Alexander Singer says “Scenarios are stories about how the future might unfold for our organizations, our communities and our world. Scenarios are not predictions. Rather, they are provocative and plausible accounts of how relevant external forces”. The purpose of scenario thinking is not to identify the most likely future, but to create a map of uncertainty — to acknowledge and examine the visible and hidden forces that are driving us toward the unknown future.

Before I talk about the scenario planning in my organization, I want to raise 2 questions: 1. How will the life be 20 even 30 years later? 2. How to make the people discuss about the future uncertainly things?

After seeing some literatures I find an easy process to make a scenario planning thought TAIDA model. The model is developed by a Chinese consultant. There are 5 stages to make a scenario planning. Tracking, Analyzing, Imaging, Decision, Action.

Tracking

Now in my organization the problem is that low ICT implement, but the school cannot realize the problem, the school leader put more money on academic competition and school environment construction in order to enhance the popularity in the whole mainland China. Because in China if the university has high popularity, more and more students want to entry in, so the university can make more money. In school level, it actually strengthen, while in class level or (students level), the increasing is little even none. Students want high quality teaching rather than good virtual increasing. If the ICT highly integrate into my university, what benefit can students get or what will be bring in the future?

Analyzing

	Helpful to achieving the objective	Harmful to achieving the objective
Internal attributes of the organization	Strengths	Weakness
	Government support Rich resource of society Hard work students	Low ICT implement Academic corruption Distance teaching Crisis response ability Lock of resource
External attributes of the environment	Opportunities	Threats
	Developing Information technology Internationalization	Foreign university

l  There are four questions should be answered in these stage.

l  How can we use each Strength?

l  How can we stop each Weakness?

l  How can we exploit each Opportunity?

l  How can we defend against each Threat?

Imagining

Decision

According to the first three stages, my organization should be focus on the e-campus construction, it is not just introduce the ICT devices or ICT idea into university. The process of achieve e-campus is that to make all the teaching resource digitization, including hypostatic objective and virtual objective. Changing university concept to society-university, make the university not just like a closed organization, and fading the concept of school gradually.

Action

It is hard to achieve the scenario planning, it not a 1,2 years plan, it will cost a lot of time to do these, maybe 5 years, maybe 10 years, even more years. So the organization should follow the plan.

Ref: http://www.gbn.com/about/scenario_planning.php

http://doc.mbalib.com/view/a5c19a9f9c666e99f08f02b4f192b2a8.html