Week Seven - Chris

Develop ideas of where you could incorporate the use of scenario planning in your organization

To better answer this week's assignment, I wanted to get more information on scenario planning in organizations generally. Also, given that I work in an academic library, I looked at the library science literature for examples of where the technique of scenario planning has already been tried out in an academic library setting. Based on this information, I then suggest some ideas about how HKBU Library might incorporate scenario planning into its organizational practice.

Chermack - Scenario Planning in Organizations (2011)

I found this text helpful in providing additional general information about scenario planning. Chermack gives an overview of the theoretical foundations of scenario planning. He also notes the many and varied definitions that authors have applied to scenario planning over the years (pp.14-15). Below are a couple that I found particularly illuminating:

"A disciplined methodology for imagining possible futures in which organizational decisions may be played out." (Schoemaker, 1995)

"Creating stories of equally possible futures and planning as though any one could move forward." (Tucker, 1999)

Chermack himself advocates a performance-based conception of scenario planning, whereby emphasis is placed on the positive impact that scenario planning can have on organizational change and performance. Drawing on the literature, he proposes six key domains around which he constructs a theoretical model of scenario planning, as illustrated below:

From a practical perspective, Chermack closely follows the approach to scenario planning developed by Royal Dutch/Shell and the Global Business Network. There are seven steps:

1. Identify a focal issue or decision

2. Analyse the internal / local environment for the key factors that will determine the success/failure of the issue/decision identified

3. Analyse the external environment for key driving forces (political, economic, social, technological, environmental)

4. Rank the key factors / driving forces based on two criteria: (1) degree of importance (2) degree of uncertainty

5. Develop a general logic for several scenarios based on the rankings established in step 4.

6. Flesh out each scenario - plausibility is a key consideration

7. Examine the implications of the developed scenarios

Chermack provides some further practical advice in his book. For example, he suggests that four is the optimum number of scenarios to consider (p. 144). Five is simply too many, while with fewer scenarios there is a greater risk of falling into common thinking traps, such as producing one obviously "good" and one obviously "bad" scenario.

Applications of scenario planning in academic libraries

Looking more specifically at the use of scenario planning in academic libraries, I looked at the work of Steve O'Connor, who was until recently the University Librarian at Hong Kong Polytechnic University Library. He has had experience in applying scenario planning at university libraries in both Australia and Hong Kong, and in a 2008 article provides a detailed overview of the application of a scenario planning process that he lead at Polytechnic University.

Libraries, like all organizations, are subject to a number of forces driving change. In the Poly U context, O'Connor worked to engage with librarians, faculty, administrators, and students to discover what future scenario for the library was most preferred. The working group set up for the purpose came up with three alternatives:

The Learning Hub

Hybrid collection (book and print resources), and a change of traditional library functions. The library is now also a place to relax and be entertained, as well as a place to discuss ideas with others. Librarians are still important but their role will be changed. Increasingly they will work in virtual space, but at the same time there will be a more human touch to interactions with users.

Mungabooreena (Meeting Place)

A meeting place for people and minds. The library is one big night club, with wireless everywhere. Emphasis is placed on cultural learning environment and artistic sensibility of the learning spaces provided.

From Wal-Mart to Stanley

In this scenario the library draws on models used by museums and bookshops. Collections will be organised thematically, and users will be able to purchase books from the library.

Building from these, the library eventually arrived at a "Preferred Library Scenario" based primarily on the Learning Hub scenario. The goal was then to realize the transformation of the library according to this preferred scenario within three years.

This seems to be slightly different from Chermack's conception of scenario planning, which seems to focus on possible futures in which organizational decisions are played out. These possible futures are all considered equally plausible. O'Connor is more concerned with doing everything possible to arrive at a particular preferred scenario. It seems to me to be important not only to consider the preferred scenario, but other scenarios that may be less desirable but happen anyway for reasons beyond the library's control. This will help the library prepare for and hopefully mitigate the negative outcomes.

Potential uses of scenario planning at HKBU Library

My own organization could potentially benefit a great deal from the use of scenario planning as modeled by O'Connor. Currently we do engage in strategic planning, but I agree with O'Connor (p. 59) when he says that strategic plans often succumb to incrementalism, in that each year's plan is merely an update of the previous years. There is a lack of direction that could be provided by scenario planning. Strategic planning is a process of determining the actions and resources needed to arrive at a destination; the destination itself can be determined by scenario planning.

Engaging in a scenario planning process similar to Poly U's would be costly in terms of time and effort spent, but it could be very valuable. Like Poly U, change at HKBU is being driven by similar external forces such as an increasing emphasis on research, and institutional pressures to remain competitive in the face of increasing competition from other local and also mainland institutions. It would also have the benefit of creating additional opportunities to engage with and provide service to the wider University community.

After considering the material that I have consulted for this week's exercise, I do think that HKBU Library could very well benefit from some formal scenario planning process. Even if not done in a holistic, organization-wide manner, such a process might be utilized at a section level, for example:

Information Services - What future scenarios could there be for how users get help from the library and interact with librarians?

Collection Services - What future scenarios could there be for the collection? (Media, means of access, cost, storage, etc.,)

Structured in a coherent manner, such exercises would be very useful in ensuring everyone in the library is more aware of the potential changes going forward, and thus better prepared to respond to future challenges.

References

Chermack, T. J. (2011). Scenario planning in organizations: How to create, use, and assess scenarios. San Francisco, CA: Berrett-Koehler.

O'Connor, S., & Au L. C. (2009). Steering a future through scenarios: Into the academic library of the future. Journal of Academic Librarianship, 35(1), 57-64.